Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/24

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2:01
Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
2:01
Ben Clemens: Let’s simply dive proper in
2:02
Scratch: What main change to baseball may have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so forth)?
2:02
Ben Clemens: Variety of fielders, perhaps? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, in fact
2:02
Visitor: Who would you relatively guess on panning out?  A prospect who must decrease his Okay price by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB price by 5-10%?
2:03
Ben Clemens: It is dependent upon different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d positively choose the man who hits too many grounders. Examine after examine reveals that hitters who’re putting out a ton within the low minors simply can not play on the main league stage on the whole
2:03
Ben Clemens: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout price. However truthfully, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ is dependent upon what stage all else is equal at
2:03
Mike: If London got here to MLB and stated “We have now an possession group able to pay billions for an growth workforce AND the town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?
2:03
Ben Clemens: surprisingly, I don’t suppose so
2:04
Ben Clemens: I simply suppose the journey could be too onerous
2:05
Ben Clemens: They clearly perceive how powerful it’s the method they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play brief sequence. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each sequence may very well be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some sort
2:05
Ben Clemens: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about really placing a workforce there completely
2:05
Teaberry: Appears protected to imagine the Phillies are a playoff workforce this yr.  What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff sport vs a proper handed pitcher?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl
2:07
Ben Clemens: I can not think about Castellanos within the discipline given how he’s enjoying
2:07
Ben Clemens: I do know that they’re speaking about enjoying Sosa within the outfield too at occasions, so perhaps you’ll be able to have him over Dahl or Rojas?
2:08
Braves: What do you suppose is inflicting the Braves’ YOY dwelling run decline? Their barrel price/onerous hit remains to be glorious however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this stage out or is there one thing systemic?
2:08
Ben Clemens: I feel a few of it’s gonna stage out, although a few of it’s that they have been unsustainably scorching final yr
2:08
Ben Clemens: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the yr
2:08
Brian: Have you ever seen knowledge about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the impression a couple of subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who bought however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have a much bigger impression than particular person gamers.
2:09
Ben Clemens: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:
2:09
Ben Clemens: However I seemed into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, and so they carry out worse than you’d anticipate primarily based on a Depth Charts rendering of their talent stage
2:10
Brian: How would you suppose a Gunnar extension would examine to Witt’s or Riley’s?
2:10
Ben Clemens: I feel it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ completed a deep dive to get extra exact than that
2:10
Visitor: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so forth.–may this be probably the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?
2:11
Ben Clemens: Properly, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even if you happen to don’t), sure
2:11
Ben Clemens: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman
2:11
Ben Clemens: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s a much bigger star than anybody listed her
2:11
Ben Clemens: but when all these guys went, certain
2:11
Ben Clemens: I do suppose that the Jays are gonna have quite a bit to say about how the commerce deadline goes
2:12
Ben Clemens: and the White Sox perhaps too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a package deal larger than what WAS received for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which for my part makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect
2:12
Ben Clemens: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds glorious
2:13
Ben Clemens: Then again…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23
2:13
Ben Clemens: So it’s positively a longshot {that a} workforce would supply that a lot
2:13
Derek: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis function?
2:14
Ben Clemens: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis function is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’
2:15
Ben Clemens: if you happen to have a look at his previous few weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor
2:15
Ben Clemens: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan
2:16
Ben Clemens: it’s simply break up in every single place
2:16
Insert Witty Title Right here: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you take pleasure in watching, and also you stated, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched quite a lot of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, if you happen to may watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it have been a tennis match, that means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics could be mentioned later), who would you prefer to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.
2:16
Ben Clemens: Oh man, what a match yesterday
2:16
Ben Clemens: I missed the ladies’s closing, nevertheless it seems that was high quality b/c Swiatek is simply too good
2:16
Ben Clemens: however the males’s closing was nice
2:17
Ben Clemens: deGrom is half of mine for certain
2:17
Ben Clemens: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil
2:17
Ben Clemens: I by no means received to see Willie Mays play so he’s most likely my choose although
2:17
Ben Clemens: or perhaps you do one per period
2:17
Ben Clemens: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd
2:17
Nick Gonzales: Am I on a scorching streak or have I figured some issues out?
2:17
Ben Clemens: por que no los dos?
2:18
Ben Clemens: I’m eternally gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary school baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the most effective hitter in a technology (sure, my park components may need been off)
2:20
Ben Clemens: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact scorching streak, however that his method of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice
2:20
Ben Clemens: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase price a bit, which makes me suppose a tailwind in walks and favorable counts may offset a babip slide
2:20
Nate: Implausible enhancements to the participant pages – cross alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!
2:20
Ben Clemens: I’ve allow them to know
2:21
Ben Clemens: and yeah it’s nice!
2:21
Princess Leia: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!

Properly, aside from Aaron Decide… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that hunch.

2:21
Jeremy: Looks as if groups which are profitable typically keep on with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m pondering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies for example, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to profitable groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal achieve in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?
2:21
Ben Clemens: This can be a actually onerous query
2:22
Ben Clemens: I feel that on the whole groups would most likely be higher off in the event that they moved on quicker than they really do, however much less shortly than followers suppose they need to
2:22
Ben Clemens: The rationale for that’s {that a} false constructive right here hurts extra
2:22
Ben Clemens: like, transferring somebody once they weren’t really cooked
2:22
MagicOriole: Is Mike Elias the most effective GM in MLB? If not, who’s?
2:22
Ben Clemens: I’ve to present it to Alex Anthopoulos
2:23
Ben Clemens: I imply, full respect to Elias
2:23
Ben Clemens: I’ve written a TON about O’s resolution making previously two years becuase they’ve had quite a lot of fascinating selections
2:23
Ben Clemens: and whereas Elias and co most likely began out as being a bit too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably
2:23
Ben Clemens: clearly, their dev/acquisition workforce is unbelievable as effectively
2:24
Ben Clemens: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. But it surely’s simply onerous to knock what the Braves hold doing
2:24
Visitor: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?
2:24
Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time
2:24
Tigers fan: Tatis Jr. has been trying higher these days…do you suppose he ever will get again to 2021 type?
2:24
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s positively doable
2:24
Ben Clemens: the man is only a spectacular athlete
2:25
Ben Clemens: i don’t suppose he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t suppose anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation
2:25
Ben Clemens: however when it comes to being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and glorious protection/baserunning to associate with it, sure
2:25
Smiling Politely: Is it practical to presume that Alonso is likely to be satisfactory in a nook OF and subsequently have much more TV to contenders?
2:25
Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, however no
2:26
Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase that he may deal with a nook outfield spot
2:26
Ben Clemens: a)it’d must be left, b)I nonetheless suppose it’d be Hoskins-esque
2:26
Visitor: What do you suppose has been the most effective free agent contract of greater than 100 million?  Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m certain I’m forgetting some good candidates.
2:27
Ben Clemens: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is definitely within the operating. A Rod and Harper are good ones
2:27
Ben Clemens: I’m trying by a listing proper now
2:28
Ben Clemens: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer most likely will get my vote for the general greatest
2:28
TPham: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he stated about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.
2:29
Ben Clemens: joy
2:29
Shota Imanaga: SHOTA.  IMANAGA.
2:29
Phil: If gamers beneath 5’7″ received an additional strike, would Altuve be the most effective participant in baseball?
2:29
M’s Fan: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna change into extra useful because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?
2:29
Ben Clemens: A little bit. However I feel pitchers may even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, principally simply specialize extra
2:29
Ben Clemens: so their principal edge will probably be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less
2:29
bosoxforlife: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?
2:30
Ben Clemens: I feel the O’s will find yourself profitable it, really, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters
2:30
Colton: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the most effective hitter in a technology out of school as effectively haha
2:30
Ben Clemens: I imply his stats have been so outrageous that even once you regulate for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they have been nonetheless otherworldly
2:30
bosoxforlife: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.
2:30
Ben Clemens: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t need to watch this
2:30
Visitor: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a yr, together with all his time at school.  Would that meaningfully scale back his commerce worth for a contender trying to purchase him this yr?
2:32
Jon Lester: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….
2:32
Jeremy: Re: greatest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally trying good up to now.
2:32
Visitor: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?
2:32
SpicieBoy: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat
2:32
Ben Clemens: boy, I really don’t know if I can repair that
2:32
Visitor: So, Ben… are you continue to frightened about Jose Ramirez?
2:33
Ben Clemens: as a substitute, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel
2:34
Visitor: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the most effective probability to dethrone considered one of them?
2:35
Ben Clemens: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?
2:35
Ben Clemens: somebody may get scorching within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t identify
2:35
Nic: So Aaron Decide…. how is that this doable? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+)  once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this stage of hitter? Is he the most effective since Bonds?
2:35
Ben Clemens: So, I’m doing a mission for tomorrow the place I graph totally different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle
2:35
Ben Clemens: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so forth.
2:35
Ben Clemens: Decide’s graph is simply ludicrous
2:36
Ben Clemens: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air
2:36
Ben Clemens: what a monswer
2:36
KM: Do you suppose Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 sport energy grade? He’s solely 22 nevertheless it simply looks like he can by no means raise the ball.
2:37
Ben Clemens: nah, I don’t. I do actually suppose he has 80 uncooked although
2:37
Visitor: I’ve been occupied with your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to anticipate a lot from them. I imply I’m certain there are at all times counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 reveals that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise

Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs received the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was enjoying effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had quite a lot of good prospects on the time)

Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski under the caliber of prospects you have been contemplating?

Additionally most likely value noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so might dissuade comparable habits from different groups

2:38
Ben Clemens: Wesneski was positively under the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time
2:38
Ben Clemens: I’m trying over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction
2:38
Ben Clemens: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system
2:39
Ben Clemens: so like, perhaps I’m utilizing the flawed prospect grades? However I feel that groups actually discounted Yankee arms who immediately gained velo after being drafted
2:39
Champdo: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?
2:39
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose so
2:39
Ben Clemens: When are you planning on being good if you happen to hold buying and selling your good gamers?
2:39
I would like my child again child again child again: if the jays find yourself really buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Making an attempt to determine who in competition wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?
2:40
Ben Clemens: I positively suppose that they’re enjoying him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t suppose a giant deal is gonna get completed, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that useful on the deadline
2:40
Ben Clemens: so there’s this bizarre state of affairs the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ could be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers
2:41
bosoxforlife: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the stage he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a sort of lifetime achievement award.
2:41
Ben Clemens: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis
2:41
Ben Clemens: it’s loopy that he by no means received it
2:41
New Yanks velo: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?
2:42
Ben Clemens: Simply that quite a lot of these guys haven’t seemed practically as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an excellent job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they received Frankie Montas solely for pitchers, roughly
2:42
Ben Clemens: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears
2:42
Ben Clemens: they did the identical for Soto
2:43
Ben Clemens: and I feel in quite a lot of these instances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d anticipate, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’
2:43
Visitor: Ben, how outdated is the pre sport win likelihood mannequin as proven within the Reside Scoreboard?  Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to reinforce predictions?
2:44
Ben Clemens: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s positively easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed primarily based on the posted sport lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)
2:44
Huge Reem: Wheeler needs to be proper behind Scherzer on the most effective free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his identify talked about
2:44
Ben Clemens: Just a few different individuals pointed him out, and yeah
2:44
Ben Clemens: he positively counts
2:44
Visitor: If Scherzer is the most effective free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst?  The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.
2:45
Ben Clemens: Oh, absolutely not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly received quite a lot of insurance coverage funds again
2:45
Seiya ain’t So: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump?  Each time he appears like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth.  The protection has been inconsistent.  What’s your tackle his future?
2:45
Ben Clemens: man…. I nonetheless suppose he’ll
2:45
Ben Clemens: regardless of having been flawed about this particular factor many occasions
2:45
Ben Clemens: I completely consider in Seiya
2:46
Ben Clemens: and he seemed like he figured all of it out on the finish of final yr, after which nope
2:46
Ben Clemens: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that
2:46
Ben Clemens: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have positively been a constant drawback
2:46
Ben Clemens: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, principally
2:46
Farhandrew Zaidman: leaguewide OPS common is under 700….time to panic or not but?
2:46
Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m panicking
2:46
Ben Clemens: baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs
2:47
SpicieBoy: I assumed the Nats have been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract as a consequence of his harm historical past
2:47
nats fan: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past
2:47
Ben Clemens: effectively that makes it worse!
2:48
Visitor: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting may very well be doubtlessly very flawed. The method of accounting for the proper variety of PA’s awarded to every workforce primarily based upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting workforce goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single sport towards a under common pitching workforce than their season common), this stuff trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any concept you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?
2:48
Ben Clemens: Let’s simply say that’s low on our listing, the positioning has had a ton of cool enhancements lately however I feel revamping our sport odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them and so they do alright) so as to add a bit will not be highest precedence
2:48
Ben Clemens: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a generally helper
2:48
Ben Clemens: however I’d guess there are numerous issues we’d repair earlier than that
2:49
SpicieBoy: Unironically I would like MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we have been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a very enjoyable time for baseball
2:49
Plate self-discipline metrics: Is there a abstract someplace on the positioning of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch information/SIS)?
2:49
Plate self-discipline metrics: can there be a abstract of the totally different sources of plate disciple metrics
2:49
Ben Clemens: There isn’t however I may give you one right here
2:49
Ben Clemens: they measure the strike zone barely in a different way
2:49
Ben Clemens: that’s the entire totally different
2:50
London Calling: % probability Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most definitely to get him?
2:50
Ben Clemens: I simply have it very low
2:50
Plate self-discipline metrics: thanks for answering my butchered query.  Is yet another correct?  SIS zone appears waaaay totally different
2:50
Ben Clemens: I dunno, truthfully! I identical to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c generally I’m pulling knowledge straight from Savant
2:50
Farhandrew Zaidman: i’ve seen a conspiracy idea that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far
2:51
Ben Clemens: I may completely see that
2:52
I would like my child again child again child again: Relating to the low league vast OPS, what are your most popular approaches/options on the best way to enhance it?
2:53
Ben Clemens: I would like extra full of life baseballs. I’d prefer to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier sport
2:53
New Yanks velo: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats received little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)
2:53
SpicieBoy: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so forth) helpful? Baseballsavant has stated that they’re supposed to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re really generally much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would let you know would really occurred, a very dangerous mannequin would haven’t any foundation in actuality). That looks like quite a lot of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re really helpful. I additionally take excessive situation with some price stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as a substitute of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who minimize their Okay% for sometimes weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA
2:54
Ben Clemens: Dan did one thing on this
2:54
bosoxforlife: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All have been excellent!
2:54
Ben Clemens: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday
2:54
Ben Clemens: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad and so they have been abysmal
2:54
Decide: “baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs”: And it grew to become private for me (notice: that is what Jordan really stated)
2:54
Ben Clemens: joy
2:55
Ben Clemens: alright, I’m performing some caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll discuss to you once more subsequent week

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He could be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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